If you have read any of my previous posts, you know I am a fan of yards and not so much of touchdowns when it comes to fantasy. TDs are too unpredictable, but yardage production tends to gravitate toward a player's mean from year to year. So, while trying to find a Big Boy for the tight end position (e.g. someone who is being undervalued but actually will provide you steady production) I found myself ruminating about two players who I really didn't think would be considered 'sleepers' or undervalued by most people. But then I checked out ESPN's tight end rankings for the upcoming season and realized that in fact my two players are not being given nearly the credit I think they should be. So, without further ado, here are two TEs who I think will definitely break out this season:
Greg Olsen (Carolina TE) and Jermaine Gresham (Cincinnati TE)
Let's start with Olsen. Olsen is currently being ranked the #9 overall TE by Matthew Berry of ESPN. So, again, not much of a stretch here, but I think he has top 5 potential. Why? Well first of all, he used to play for my beloved Bears, so I am biased (and still upset that Mike Martz was allergic to TEs). Secondly, as a parent, reading this story made me appreciate him as a human being. How can you not root for this guy?
Secondly, I examined 20 tight ends who I felt would be worthy of being drafted this coming season and averaged their receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. I tried to see how many players met or exceeded the mean in each category. The only players who did so last year were Jimmy Graham, Tony Gonzalez and Heath Miller. I certainly don't see Miller repeating the season he had last year (which was aided by 8 TDs), and I don't think I'm alone in my thinking. Then, I checked who met or exceeded the mean in at least two of the three categories and here is what I found:
Meet/Exceed in Receptions and Receiving Yards: Jason Witten, Greg Olsen, Brandon Myers, Jermaine Gresham
Meet/Exceed in Receiving Yards and Touchdowns: Owen Daniels
And that's it. Now, I know much of preseason rankings is based on speculation about production, which is why you will see Matthew Berry rank Vernon Davis, Kyle Rudolph and Dennis Pitta ahead of Olsen. I certainly think Davis will be good, as much of his production spiked once Colin Kaepernick became his quarterback. Pitta I worry about because he still shares some receptions with Ed Dickson, and if you take away just two of his touchdowns from last season, his remaining stats rival those of Brent Celek, Martellus Bennett, Jermichael Finley and Brandon Pettigrew, hardly top 5 material. Kyle Rudolph scored a lot of touchdowns, which is why people are gaga over him. On the other hand, he has Christian Ponder throwing him the ball, which having been a Bears fan for life, and knowing what it's like to have a 'game manager' at quarterback, I am very frightened of drafting Kyle Rudolph. Also, the Vikes added a big target in Greg Jennings this year which could eat into his targets (conversely, you could argue that Anquan Boldin's absence from the Ravens boosts Pitta's stock, and I agree, I never said Pitta wouldn't be good, I just don't think Olsen is getting enough love).
So, back to Mr. Olsen. Everyone knows Witten is awesome and had a crazy good year last year. Brandon Myers goes from the wasteland of football productivity that is Oakland to the New York Giants, where I certainly think he will succeed. That leaves Olsen. Call me crazy, but I am all in on Carolina making the playoffs. I watched the Bears play them last year, and the Panthers defense is better than people realize. They have a lot of young talent, and Ron Rivera, former Bears defensive coordinator, coaching them. Secondly, I am sold on Cam Newton. Of all the mobile quarterbacks that emerged last year (RGIII, Kaepernick, Russell Wilson) I am still most confident in Newton. His surge at the end of last season was what we expected him to do the entire season, which is why people may view his sophomore season as a disappointment. But he's freakishly good, and I think the Panthers will put up stats and points this year. Having watched Olsen his entire career, he has definitely been improving each year, and I think he's a steal being ranked where he is.
Next up, Jermaine Gresham.
I like Jermaine Gresham, because his name sounds like John Grisham. And although I've never read a Grisham novel, I can FIRMly state that the (runaway) JURY is not quite out on the (pelican) BRIEF career of Gresham (while wikipedia-ing John Grisham titles, I came across one called 'Playing for Pizza' which I can only assume is about Jermaine Gresham's love of pizza, thus making him way cooler).
Also, side note: Does anyone remember the episode of 30 Rock in which they kept quoting The Pelican Brief because everybody had been watching it on cable all week? Liz Lemon mentions how The Pelican Brief is always on tv, but frankly, I think Tom Hanks' movies are contractually obligated to be on some network at all times of the day. I think Forrest Gump and Cast Away must be on some channel a minimum of once a week, and I've already seen Big and The Ladykillers show up while scrolling through channels recently.
So, back to football. I think the Bengals are legit too. They have made the playoffs in three of the past four seasons, and they seem to have balance on both sides of the ball. Now, I know the Bengals just drafted Tyler Eifert, but again, this is my ranking of Big Boys - guys whose expectations are low but will produce. How the hell is Gresham ranked 22nd by Matthew Berry??? He has Jake Ballard, the new TE for New England, ranked ahead of Gresham.
I must digress again, but trust me, this one is football related:
I hate the idea of handcuffing your running back (for those unfamiliar, this is the theory that you should draft the backup of your stud running back when drafting because should your RB get injured, you immediately have his backup in place before someone else can claim him off waivers). Well, this theory is awful because there is a reason someone is a backup - they aren't as good as the starter. There is no way in hell I am going to waste a draft pick on Toby Gerhart in case Adrian Peterson gets hurt, because if Gerhart does play in AP's place, he is certainly not going to put up AP numbers. I have only seen a backup RB be as productive as a starter in cases where a team has a scheme (such as Mike Shanahan with Washington who we detailed plenty in my last post, or his former staff member Gary Kubiak in Houston). It was only a few years ago that a rookie named Steve Slaton was a fantasy Big Boy, until he was deemed too fragile to be a full time back. The Texans went on to have success (or should we say fantasy football success) with the likes of the immortal Samkon Gado and Ron Dayne (Big Ten shout-out, woo woo!) before drafting Ben Tate as their next big RB. People forget that Arian Foster was given the opportunity to start the season due to a fantastic finish in Week 17 the year before Tate's draft, and the fact that Ben Tate was injured for his entire rookie season due to an injury sustained in the preseason (and ironically, right before my fantasy draft, which threw a dent into my brother's plans to draft him that year as a sleeper). Anyhow, Arian Foster happened to be in the right place at the right time, and the rest is fantasy history.
The other side of the handcuffing coin I shall call the Glen Coffee Phenomenon. A few years back, Frank Gore was having a great year and sustained an injury which would sideline him for roughly four weeks. Every fantasy expert on Earth said that Glen Coffee needed to be picked up pronto, and I followed suit. However, I was hoping someone would buy into the hype and agree to a trade with me, because I really didn't need Mr. Coffee (actually, who doesn't need a Mr. Coffee, they are fantastic machines that often retail for about $10 in Black Friday sales at Menards). Anyhow, nobody bit on my trade bait, so I felt obligated to play Glen, and he had a modest 30 or so yards rushing with a TD in his first week as a starter, and that was the highlight of his career. He then went on to RETIRE THE NEXT SEASON! This phenomenon can also be called the Rashad Jennings, Ken Darby, Jerious Norwood Phenomenon for similar reasons.
SO....how does this relate to Jake Ballard? Ballard is talented, no doubt, he had some productive seasons with the Giants. However, just because New England has been able to utilize the TE like no other team the past couple of seasons, and happens to have two very giant question marks at that position going into the 2013 season, that doesn't mean Jake Ballard will now become Gronk 2.0 because he's running the same routes Rob Gronkowski did last year (we certainly don't expect Ballard to party like Gronk, so why should we expect him to perform like him on the field?). Belichick was able to make the TE so effective because had the personnel (i.e. good tight ends). He is a remarkable coach when it comes to playing to his strengths, as well as going against the grain. I wouldn't be surprised to see Belichick give a proverbial middle finger to the pass-heavy modus operandi of the NFL by playing to his breakout running back Stevan Ridley and going old-school, rushing and using the running back in more unique ways instead of passing the ball 50 times a game. Well, I think Tom Brady and Gisele would have something to say about that, but I definitely think Ridley gets used more often, and that Ballard does not instantly become good just because of the position he is in.
That being said, Gresham has seen his receptions, targets and yards all increase each season, while maintaining an average of about 5 touchdowns per season. Also, Gresham is clearly the number two target behind A.J. Green, so I don't see him ceding too much of his productivity to Eifert. And, how cool is it that Gresham's quarterback, Andy Dalton, has hair that matches his helmet color? It's as if the Bengals drafted him partly because of his sweet rust colored buzzcut.
So, if you are unable to pick up one of the obvious studs at tight end (Witten, Graham, maybe Tony Gonzalez, but come on, this guy is like 50 years old, I can remember getting his rookie card when I was a kid) Good-time Gronkowski or Vernon Davis, you could be in for a steal if you watch your friends pass up Olsen or Gresham on draft day, only to then show them this blog and how insightful it was and how they should have been reading it all along!
Until next time,
Davey Dave
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Monday, July 8, 2013
Big Boys and Hipsters: A look at draft day steals and over-rated players
Hello all,
It has been a ridiculously long time since my last post, mainly because other things such as 'parenting' or 'yardwork' or 'vacation' happening the past two weeks. Lucky for you, while doing said yardwork or driving home from vacation, I had plenty of time to think about fantasy football!
As parents out there can attest, road trips are memorable, fun experience that you usually don't realize are fun and memorable until you've been home for a few days. Alas, the title of this blog came to me after several failed attempts to go out to eat with my 15 month old son. I had been excited to try several trendy bars or microbreweries in the hopes of having a nice cold one after a fun day with the kids, only to find that 15 month olds do not like trendy bars or microbreweries. 15 month olds like to scream and wander the restaurant, make an ill-fated attempt to fly down flights of stairs or run into the waitstaff in a kamikaze effort to be removed from the restaurant. However, what do 15 month olds love? Fast food restaurants. For some reason, the allure of fluorescent lights, pubescent teens taking orders and ketchup packets make kids calm and happy. What was my son's favorite destination over the course of a 3-day vacation? Big Boy. That's right, the quintessential sign of America's love of greasy food and its effects on the circumference of our waists. My wife and I had to pry our son off of the Big Boy statue because our son would not stop affectionately hugging his new best friend.
So what does this have to do with fantasy football? Why, it's only the greatest analogy between sports and food ever to be made, that's what!
This was my first trip to Big Boy, and I must say, it hit the spot. I had low expectations, wasn't expecting much in return, and actually had an enjoyable experience. I liken Big Boy to a player you draft in a later round without much expectation, only to see them perform far beyond your expectations. We shall call these players Big Boys.
On the other hand, the hip places I attempted to go to, only to experience utter failure, I shall use to discuss those players who you hold in high regard prior to your fantasy draft. You have high hopes that they hold the key to fantasy glory, only to draft them and watch as your team continues to have the highest projected points each week and lose to that random person you added to your league just to round it up to an even number of players. We shall call these players Hipsters, partly because of hip restaurants, but also because we all have a negative connotation of real-life hipsters, so let's keep that bitter taste in our mouths.
So, let's get the bad news out of the way: The Hipsters
1. Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins
Ok, let's get something out of the way from the get go. Being a Hipster doesn't mean you won't be an effective player. Alfred seems like a nice young man, probably my favorite running back ever named Alfred to play in the NFL. However, people have this guy ranked in the Top 10 of ALL players heading into drafts, and that is just too high.
Why you ask? Sure, there are the issues regarding his coach and his love of using any man off the street to be his starting RB at a moment's notice, and somehow having success doing this (anyone know what Selvin Young, Mike Anderson, Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, Reuben Droughns, Travis Henry, Peyton Hillis, Evan Royster, Ryan Torain or Roy Helu are up to?).
There's also the fact that the Redskins have discussed using RGIII more as a passer to preserve his health, which means more passing plays. Morris was only targeted 16 times last year in the backfield, which can obviously change, but regardless, less running plays is less running plays.
However, here's the kicker. In looking at many top fantasy RB's over the past five years, I have noticed a major trend: Any RB who exceeds 300 rushing attempts in a season sees a decline in their rushing yardage the next year. 4 years ago, Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN wrote a great article about why people should be leery of Michael Turner because he exceeded the magic number of 370 carries, which he goes on to demonstrate as the forbidden number of attempts for RBs. I will spare you all of the details, because you can check these people's stats on your own, but the following players, many of whom were quite dominant in fantasy at one point or another (or still are) have all seen their rushing yards and attempts decrease following a season of 300 or more carries: Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson. The only person I saw actually have an INCREASE in rushing yards (by 144 yards) was Ray Rice from 2010-2011.
How many attempts did Morris have last year? 335. The only running backs with 300 or more carries last year were Morris, as well as Foster, Peterson, Doug Martin and Marshawn Lynch. Now, even if AP or Arian Foster or Marshawn Lynch have a down year next year, it probably won't be as precipitous a fall as other backs may experience. These guys have been consistent for at least two consecutive seasons, and there is no way you can't draft them if the opportunity arises. But I would be hesitant with Morris and Martin, or possibly offer them as trade bait. I feel that I need to see at least one more good year out of these two before I take a first/second round gamble on them. I am reminded of how Ryan Mathews was considered a first/second round draft pick his first two years in the league, and yeah, I am still wondering why I drafted a guy who doesn't even have two t's in his last name when spelling 'Matthew.'
I will continue with posts on Big Boys and Hipsters soon. My son took 3 hours to fall asleep yesterday (he had an accidental five minute nap in the car, which somehow recharged him and convinced him that he didn't need sleep) so a longer night's sleep is very much in order. Until next time,
Davey Dave
It has been a ridiculously long time since my last post, mainly because other things such as 'parenting' or 'yardwork' or 'vacation' happening the past two weeks. Lucky for you, while doing said yardwork or driving home from vacation, I had plenty of time to think about fantasy football!
As parents out there can attest, road trips are memorable, fun experience that you usually don't realize are fun and memorable until you've been home for a few days. Alas, the title of this blog came to me after several failed attempts to go out to eat with my 15 month old son. I had been excited to try several trendy bars or microbreweries in the hopes of having a nice cold one after a fun day with the kids, only to find that 15 month olds do not like trendy bars or microbreweries. 15 month olds like to scream and wander the restaurant, make an ill-fated attempt to fly down flights of stairs or run into the waitstaff in a kamikaze effort to be removed from the restaurant. However, what do 15 month olds love? Fast food restaurants. For some reason, the allure of fluorescent lights, pubescent teens taking orders and ketchup packets make kids calm and happy. What was my son's favorite destination over the course of a 3-day vacation? Big Boy. That's right, the quintessential sign of America's love of greasy food and its effects on the circumference of our waists. My wife and I had to pry our son off of the Big Boy statue because our son would not stop affectionately hugging his new best friend.
So what does this have to do with fantasy football? Why, it's only the greatest analogy between sports and food ever to be made, that's what!
This was my first trip to Big Boy, and I must say, it hit the spot. I had low expectations, wasn't expecting much in return, and actually had an enjoyable experience. I liken Big Boy to a player you draft in a later round without much expectation, only to see them perform far beyond your expectations. We shall call these players Big Boys.
On the other hand, the hip places I attempted to go to, only to experience utter failure, I shall use to discuss those players who you hold in high regard prior to your fantasy draft. You have high hopes that they hold the key to fantasy glory, only to draft them and watch as your team continues to have the highest projected points each week and lose to that random person you added to your league just to round it up to an even number of players. We shall call these players Hipsters, partly because of hip restaurants, but also because we all have a negative connotation of real-life hipsters, so let's keep that bitter taste in our mouths.
So, let's get the bad news out of the way: The Hipsters
1. Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins
Ok, let's get something out of the way from the get go. Being a Hipster doesn't mean you won't be an effective player. Alfred seems like a nice young man, probably my favorite running back ever named Alfred to play in the NFL. However, people have this guy ranked in the Top 10 of ALL players heading into drafts, and that is just too high.
Why you ask? Sure, there are the issues regarding his coach and his love of using any man off the street to be his starting RB at a moment's notice, and somehow having success doing this (anyone know what Selvin Young, Mike Anderson, Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, Reuben Droughns, Travis Henry, Peyton Hillis, Evan Royster, Ryan Torain or Roy Helu are up to?).
There's also the fact that the Redskins have discussed using RGIII more as a passer to preserve his health, which means more passing plays. Morris was only targeted 16 times last year in the backfield, which can obviously change, but regardless, less running plays is less running plays.
However, here's the kicker. In looking at many top fantasy RB's over the past five years, I have noticed a major trend: Any RB who exceeds 300 rushing attempts in a season sees a decline in their rushing yardage the next year. 4 years ago, Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN wrote a great article about why people should be leery of Michael Turner because he exceeded the magic number of 370 carries, which he goes on to demonstrate as the forbidden number of attempts for RBs. I will spare you all of the details, because you can check these people's stats on your own, but the following players, many of whom were quite dominant in fantasy at one point or another (or still are) have all seen their rushing yards and attempts decrease following a season of 300 or more carries: Adrian Peterson, Arian Foster, Michael Turner, Matt Forte, Rashard Mendenhall and Chris Johnson. The only person I saw actually have an INCREASE in rushing yards (by 144 yards) was Ray Rice from 2010-2011.
How many attempts did Morris have last year? 335. The only running backs with 300 or more carries last year were Morris, as well as Foster, Peterson, Doug Martin and Marshawn Lynch. Now, even if AP or Arian Foster or Marshawn Lynch have a down year next year, it probably won't be as precipitous a fall as other backs may experience. These guys have been consistent for at least two consecutive seasons, and there is no way you can't draft them if the opportunity arises. But I would be hesitant with Morris and Martin, or possibly offer them as trade bait. I feel that I need to see at least one more good year out of these two before I take a first/second round gamble on them. I am reminded of how Ryan Mathews was considered a first/second round draft pick his first two years in the league, and yeah, I am still wondering why I drafted a guy who doesn't even have two t's in his last name when spelling 'Matthew.'
I will continue with posts on Big Boys and Hipsters soon. My son took 3 hours to fall asleep yesterday (he had an accidental five minute nap in the car, which somehow recharged him and convinced him that he didn't need sleep) so a longer night's sleep is very much in order. Until next time,
Davey Dave
Thursday, June 13, 2013
How to draft a no-worry, no-regret team
As a parent, I have little time to read up on every free agent that is available on the waiver wire during the fantasy season. Thus, I invest most of my energy into the draft.
Fantasy draft day provides the same feeling of giddiness that Christmas morning did for me as a child. There is anticipation, discussion about what gifts/players you received after the fact, and instead of toys, you get beer, and instead of getting toy-drunk, you get beer-drunk. (Toy-drunk is totally legit; everyone has had toy-goggles for a particular gift, thinking it was awesome and really wanting it, only to realize it was kinda lame and lost its luster by February of the next year. I was definitely toy drunk over acquiring the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles action figures of Rat King and Panda Khan. I was ecstatic over getting these figures, and I slowly realized that Rat King just appeared to be a homeless man who was mad that the Turtles were living in his designated sewer dwelling, and Panda Khan is ...well actually, Panda Khan is a harbinger of the appeal of pandas with martial arts training (here's looking at you Kung Fu Panda). So actually, that was a pretty cool gift, but alas, I digress.
Anyhow, I think most fantasy players can agree that draft day is quite possibly the best part of being in a fantasy league. For parents, it's an excuse to get together with friends, and the more leagues you do, the more drafts you get to attend (any situation in which you can have a conversation with adults is highly worthwhile). As mentioned previously, I devote much of my attention to the draft because I know I will not be able to keep up with free agency to the extent that some of my childless peers can.
So, what's with the 'no-worry, no-regret' tagline? Well, simply put, regret is the single most stressful aspect of fantasy sports. Nothing is more ulcer-inducing than watching a player on your bench outscore half of your opponents roster. There are ways to avoid this during the season, which will be discussed in a later post. But in regards to drafting, there are several things you can do to set yourself up for a high-success/low-stress season, and draft players with a low 'regretability index.' (yes, that term was invented right here, right now, and is now 'officially' trademarked!) Anyhow, here goes!
Davey Dave's Rules for Draft Success and Lack of Stress
1. You need a top 10 QB. Period. This seems incredibly obvious, but you will occasionally read from a fantasy 'expert' that QB is a deep position with decent talent available beyond the Obvious Ones (Brees, Brady, Rodgers, etc.). Well, unless you're in a keeper league and do not have the opportunity to draft a great QB, or if your league isn't super QB heavy (TD's for QB's in my leagues have always been 6 points, making them highly valuable), then you could argue with my theory. So, what criteria do you follow when considering someone Top 10? You'll have to read my next post to find out!
2. You need a top 10 TE. As I argued under Rule 1, many experts will discuss how TE has become a deeper position since more teams are utilizing TE's as pass catchers than ever before. However, you need one of the best, because the best TE's in the league are essentially on par with WR in productivity. And the drop off in TE talent from the 10th best to even the 15th best is drastic (same with QB). This is not necessarily the case with other positions, like WR.
3. SPOILER ALERT: My next post will be about how yards are the single most important indicator of fantasy success, not TD's. That's right, the way to avoid regret is to draft players who consistently put up large yardage numbers. I will get into this in detail later, but seriously, don't get duped by someone's TD totals from the previous season, there are so many variables that go into a player scoring as opposed to just accumulating yards.
On that note, when drafting WR, you can gauge a player's consistency more effectively by examining their reception and yardage totals. These tend to gravitate near each other from season to season (for the best WRs) more so than TDs.
4. RB still rule the roost. I am actually going against the philosophy I used two years ago to win a fantasy championship with this one, but hear me out. Two years ago, I decided that there were so many RB by committee situations in the NFL that I would not even worry about drafting a RB. The league was pass-oriented, and I wanted the best QB, TE and WR I could get. I would rely on two RB's who split time (unless I could get a decent #1 RB) and troll the free agent ranks during the season (only had 1 kid at the time, thus more time to troll).
Well, this philosophy was not necessarily proven true by my win, and here is why: I drafted Aaron Rodgers with the first overall pick, and proceeded to draft the following players in order: Rashard Mendenhall (yeah, I did that), Hakeen Nicks (injured but effective when needed), Felix Jones (injured often), Dallas Clark (injured very often), Austin Collie (concussed and never really played), Kenny Britt (good when not arrested/injured), Matthew Stafford (sat on bench whole year due to Rodgers), Reggie Bush (gambled on him because I thought he would split time with Daniel Thomas, ended up being a major force), but the real steal of this draft was Darren Sproles in the 15th round (had a monster season, and this league also counted return yards - Sproles was in the top 5 for overall points by season's end).
So, I attempted to get QB's and pass catchers, left RB to chance, and luckily had two gems come out of the later rounds (and had the good fortune to pick up Antonio Brown as a free agent).
So, why are RB's important again? Well, my philosophy was true: the league is more pass heavy than ever before and the number of teams with true single backs are far fewer than the number of teams with quality QBs (at least in my opinion). While I originally felt you could just ditch RB as a position of importance, the scarcity of quality, #1 RBs has made them that much more valuable. The team who I was chasing the entire year had Matt Forte, Fred Jackson (again, two years ago), LeSean McCoy (see Jackson, Fred) and DeMarco Murray was a late season pick up (ditto on that two years ago thing). That team was so solid he didn't even have to worry about half of his line-up because those guys produced so consistently. Since much of this blog is about not having to stress about your lineup, nothing provides mental assurance like a stud RB (just ask AP and Arian Foster owners for the past couple of years).
5. DO NOT REACH ON DEFENSE (unless you are a weirdo like me and make defense incredibly valuable in your leagues). I have always been burned attempting to be cute and draft the first defense of the draft (hey Ravens of 2007, I am still mad at you). Yes, you have your obvious strong defenses like the 49ers, but honestly, every year there is a team who you'd least expect would be decent who goes undrafted that can be picked up off waivers. Also, a lot of times you can survive a few weeks in fantasy by picking up defenses based on match-ups (I call this the "Hey, who's playing Jacksonville this week' rule - no offense Jacksonville, I expect you to be much improved this year), but you get the idea.
One thing I will say about defense: fantasy is generous to team's that generate turnovers, not teams that have low points against totals. Points against is a terrible barometer of how well your team defense will be because the quantifiers are often set as 0-6 points, 7-13, etc. So, if a team holds another team to one TD, but that team makes 1 extra point, you will earn potentially 3 less points. Focus on teams with high INT and SACK totals, as those can lead to turnovers and scores. I won a different league one year using the Saints defense (the last days of Gregg Williams, so perhaps my players had some added incentive to make plays - HEY OH) but that Saints team gave up points often, yet also generated tons of turnovers, thus making them valuable in a fantasy sense, but not in an actual sense.
6. Kickers don't suck as much as you think. They always lead the actual NFL in points scored, yet never do so in fantasy. There are two philosophies when it comes to selecting a kicker: Do I draft the guy on the team that scores the most points (and thus, earns the most extra points), or do I draft the guy on the mediocre offense that can't score enough TDs, and thus must settle for field goals. There is no perfect way to answer this because kickers vary in fantasy consistency so much (hence why everyone hates them). In regards to ACTUAL NFL points, the kicker on the high scoring team benefits because every kick he makes is worth three points, and every extra point 1. However, in fantasy leagues (at least in mine), making a 50-yarder is more valuable and worth more points than making a chip shot from 19 yards out. So, it is often beneficial to have a guy whose offense isn't so great, and has to boot kicks from 40+ yards on a regular basis.
So, who to draft? Honestly, if you're looking for low-stress, just draft a guy who doesn't miss that often or kicks for your favorite team to cheer for. I always select someone who kicks indoors or plays most of their games in nice weather. Or, pick the 2nd year kickers for Minnesota and St. Louis because both of those guys can boot the ball 60+ yards and will probably want to break the record for longest field goal ever as soon as possible. But no matter what, don't be that person who drafts a kicker before the last round. Even if kickers go on a run in the 14th round of a 16 round draft, I promise you that a good kicker will still be available in the last round. Waiting on a kicker is how you get Darren Sproles in the second to last round instead of Josh Scobee.
7. This has been an overriding message throughout this post, but you really need to know your league. Are passing TD's worth 6 points? Than QB is the most valuable position. Do you give out tons of points to defenses for shutouts or turnovers? Maybe consider drafting a powerhouse defense that has been consistent for several years. Points per reception? This can greatly impact which RB's you draft. Return yards (as all of my leagues have included) a part of your scoring? Then you should definitely consider someone like Josh Cribbs (who has finished in the top 10 in scoring at least two times in my leagues).
8. Do not have a pre-draft expectation of drafting certain positions in certain rounds. The best way to practice having to adjust your drafting gameplan on the fly is with mock drafts. You can read all the rankings in the world, but the human element will always make the draft unpredictable. If you find yourself in a situation in which everyone in your league starts to draft a ton of defenses in a row, then by all means, draft one. I always adhere by the philosophy that you can't have a preconceived notion of WHEN you will draft a particular position. If you didn't think you'd need to draft a TE until the 7th round, and five straight get drafted in the 5th round, than you must adapt.
9. If your ideal pick is not available, draft for value. I see so many people fail at this aspect of drafting. They mentally lock in on the fact that they need a TE for instance, because there was a run on TE's in the previous round. Well, if that run has resulted in a mix of mediocrity at the bottom of the barrel at that position, don't just flip a coin and pick one of them. Draft a different position with more value, and try to swing a trade. I guarantee that whatever is left of the bottom rung of TE will still be there a few rounds later.
10. Pay attention to who is being drafted by your peers. That sounds obvious, but one thing I learned from reading Matthew Berry is that he always has a sheet with him at drafts in which he can write down which positions are being drafted by the others teams. This allows you to see not just which players are being drafted, but more importantly, helps you predict what position your peers may be considering drafting in the next round.
11. Have fun! Seriously, if you can't laugh a little, trash talk, have a few beers, eat greasy food which will undoubtedly give you stomach issues the following morning and leave the draft feeling like you drafted the greatest team ever (or regret all of your picks, those seems to be the only two emotions I feel post-draft), then you are taking this way too seriously.
Tune in next time as I discuss more about the regretability index of various players, as well as the importance of yards over TD's.
Fantasy draft day provides the same feeling of giddiness that Christmas morning did for me as a child. There is anticipation, discussion about what gifts/players you received after the fact, and instead of toys, you get beer, and instead of getting toy-drunk, you get beer-drunk. (Toy-drunk is totally legit; everyone has had toy-goggles for a particular gift, thinking it was awesome and really wanting it, only to realize it was kinda lame and lost its luster by February of the next year. I was definitely toy drunk over acquiring the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles action figures of Rat King and Panda Khan. I was ecstatic over getting these figures, and I slowly realized that Rat King just appeared to be a homeless man who was mad that the Turtles were living in his designated sewer dwelling, and Panda Khan is ...well actually, Panda Khan is a harbinger of the appeal of pandas with martial arts training (here's looking at you Kung Fu Panda). So actually, that was a pretty cool gift, but alas, I digress.
Anyhow, I think most fantasy players can agree that draft day is quite possibly the best part of being in a fantasy league. For parents, it's an excuse to get together with friends, and the more leagues you do, the more drafts you get to attend (any situation in which you can have a conversation with adults is highly worthwhile). As mentioned previously, I devote much of my attention to the draft because I know I will not be able to keep up with free agency to the extent that some of my childless peers can.
So, what's with the 'no-worry, no-regret' tagline? Well, simply put, regret is the single most stressful aspect of fantasy sports. Nothing is more ulcer-inducing than watching a player on your bench outscore half of your opponents roster. There are ways to avoid this during the season, which will be discussed in a later post. But in regards to drafting, there are several things you can do to set yourself up for a high-success/low-stress season, and draft players with a low 'regretability index.' (yes, that term was invented right here, right now, and is now 'officially' trademarked!) Anyhow, here goes!
Davey Dave's Rules for Draft Success and Lack of Stress
1. You need a top 10 QB. Period. This seems incredibly obvious, but you will occasionally read from a fantasy 'expert' that QB is a deep position with decent talent available beyond the Obvious Ones (Brees, Brady, Rodgers, etc.). Well, unless you're in a keeper league and do not have the opportunity to draft a great QB, or if your league isn't super QB heavy (TD's for QB's in my leagues have always been 6 points, making them highly valuable), then you could argue with my theory. So, what criteria do you follow when considering someone Top 10? You'll have to read my next post to find out!
2. You need a top 10 TE. As I argued under Rule 1, many experts will discuss how TE has become a deeper position since more teams are utilizing TE's as pass catchers than ever before. However, you need one of the best, because the best TE's in the league are essentially on par with WR in productivity. And the drop off in TE talent from the 10th best to even the 15th best is drastic (same with QB). This is not necessarily the case with other positions, like WR.
3. SPOILER ALERT: My next post will be about how yards are the single most important indicator of fantasy success, not TD's. That's right, the way to avoid regret is to draft players who consistently put up large yardage numbers. I will get into this in detail later, but seriously, don't get duped by someone's TD totals from the previous season, there are so many variables that go into a player scoring as opposed to just accumulating yards.
On that note, when drafting WR, you can gauge a player's consistency more effectively by examining their reception and yardage totals. These tend to gravitate near each other from season to season (for the best WRs) more so than TDs.
4. RB still rule the roost. I am actually going against the philosophy I used two years ago to win a fantasy championship with this one, but hear me out. Two years ago, I decided that there were so many RB by committee situations in the NFL that I would not even worry about drafting a RB. The league was pass-oriented, and I wanted the best QB, TE and WR I could get. I would rely on two RB's who split time (unless I could get a decent #1 RB) and troll the free agent ranks during the season (only had 1 kid at the time, thus more time to troll).
Well, this philosophy was not necessarily proven true by my win, and here is why: I drafted Aaron Rodgers with the first overall pick, and proceeded to draft the following players in order: Rashard Mendenhall (yeah, I did that), Hakeen Nicks (injured but effective when needed), Felix Jones (injured often), Dallas Clark (injured very often), Austin Collie (concussed and never really played), Kenny Britt (good when not arrested/injured), Matthew Stafford (sat on bench whole year due to Rodgers), Reggie Bush (gambled on him because I thought he would split time with Daniel Thomas, ended up being a major force), but the real steal of this draft was Darren Sproles in the 15th round (had a monster season, and this league also counted return yards - Sproles was in the top 5 for overall points by season's end).
So, I attempted to get QB's and pass catchers, left RB to chance, and luckily had two gems come out of the later rounds (and had the good fortune to pick up Antonio Brown as a free agent).
So, why are RB's important again? Well, my philosophy was true: the league is more pass heavy than ever before and the number of teams with true single backs are far fewer than the number of teams with quality QBs (at least in my opinion). While I originally felt you could just ditch RB as a position of importance, the scarcity of quality, #1 RBs has made them that much more valuable. The team who I was chasing the entire year had Matt Forte, Fred Jackson (again, two years ago), LeSean McCoy (see Jackson, Fred) and DeMarco Murray was a late season pick up (ditto on that two years ago thing). That team was so solid he didn't even have to worry about half of his line-up because those guys produced so consistently. Since much of this blog is about not having to stress about your lineup, nothing provides mental assurance like a stud RB (just ask AP and Arian Foster owners for the past couple of years).
5. DO NOT REACH ON DEFENSE (unless you are a weirdo like me and make defense incredibly valuable in your leagues). I have always been burned attempting to be cute and draft the first defense of the draft (hey Ravens of 2007, I am still mad at you). Yes, you have your obvious strong defenses like the 49ers, but honestly, every year there is a team who you'd least expect would be decent who goes undrafted that can be picked up off waivers. Also, a lot of times you can survive a few weeks in fantasy by picking up defenses based on match-ups (I call this the "Hey, who's playing Jacksonville this week' rule - no offense Jacksonville, I expect you to be much improved this year), but you get the idea.
One thing I will say about defense: fantasy is generous to team's that generate turnovers, not teams that have low points against totals. Points against is a terrible barometer of how well your team defense will be because the quantifiers are often set as 0-6 points, 7-13, etc. So, if a team holds another team to one TD, but that team makes 1 extra point, you will earn potentially 3 less points. Focus on teams with high INT and SACK totals, as those can lead to turnovers and scores. I won a different league one year using the Saints defense (the last days of Gregg Williams, so perhaps my players had some added incentive to make plays - HEY OH) but that Saints team gave up points often, yet also generated tons of turnovers, thus making them valuable in a fantasy sense, but not in an actual sense.
6. Kickers don't suck as much as you think. They always lead the actual NFL in points scored, yet never do so in fantasy. There are two philosophies when it comes to selecting a kicker: Do I draft the guy on the team that scores the most points (and thus, earns the most extra points), or do I draft the guy on the mediocre offense that can't score enough TDs, and thus must settle for field goals. There is no perfect way to answer this because kickers vary in fantasy consistency so much (hence why everyone hates them). In regards to ACTUAL NFL points, the kicker on the high scoring team benefits because every kick he makes is worth three points, and every extra point 1. However, in fantasy leagues (at least in mine), making a 50-yarder is more valuable and worth more points than making a chip shot from 19 yards out. So, it is often beneficial to have a guy whose offense isn't so great, and has to boot kicks from 40+ yards on a regular basis.
So, who to draft? Honestly, if you're looking for low-stress, just draft a guy who doesn't miss that often or kicks for your favorite team to cheer for. I always select someone who kicks indoors or plays most of their games in nice weather. Or, pick the 2nd year kickers for Minnesota and St. Louis because both of those guys can boot the ball 60+ yards and will probably want to break the record for longest field goal ever as soon as possible. But no matter what, don't be that person who drafts a kicker before the last round. Even if kickers go on a run in the 14th round of a 16 round draft, I promise you that a good kicker will still be available in the last round. Waiting on a kicker is how you get Darren Sproles in the second to last round instead of Josh Scobee.
7. This has been an overriding message throughout this post, but you really need to know your league. Are passing TD's worth 6 points? Than QB is the most valuable position. Do you give out tons of points to defenses for shutouts or turnovers? Maybe consider drafting a powerhouse defense that has been consistent for several years. Points per reception? This can greatly impact which RB's you draft. Return yards (as all of my leagues have included) a part of your scoring? Then you should definitely consider someone like Josh Cribbs (who has finished in the top 10 in scoring at least two times in my leagues).
8. Do not have a pre-draft expectation of drafting certain positions in certain rounds. The best way to practice having to adjust your drafting gameplan on the fly is with mock drafts. You can read all the rankings in the world, but the human element will always make the draft unpredictable. If you find yourself in a situation in which everyone in your league starts to draft a ton of defenses in a row, then by all means, draft one. I always adhere by the philosophy that you can't have a preconceived notion of WHEN you will draft a particular position. If you didn't think you'd need to draft a TE until the 7th round, and five straight get drafted in the 5th round, than you must adapt.
9. If your ideal pick is not available, draft for value. I see so many people fail at this aspect of drafting. They mentally lock in on the fact that they need a TE for instance, because there was a run on TE's in the previous round. Well, if that run has resulted in a mix of mediocrity at the bottom of the barrel at that position, don't just flip a coin and pick one of them. Draft a different position with more value, and try to swing a trade. I guarantee that whatever is left of the bottom rung of TE will still be there a few rounds later.
10. Pay attention to who is being drafted by your peers. That sounds obvious, but one thing I learned from reading Matthew Berry is that he always has a sheet with him at drafts in which he can write down which positions are being drafted by the others teams. This allows you to see not just which players are being drafted, but more importantly, helps you predict what position your peers may be considering drafting in the next round.
11. Have fun! Seriously, if you can't laugh a little, trash talk, have a few beers, eat greasy food which will undoubtedly give you stomach issues the following morning and leave the draft feeling like you drafted the greatest team ever (or regret all of your picks, those seems to be the only two emotions I feel post-draft), then you are taking this way too seriously.
Tune in next time as I discuss more about the regretability index of various players, as well as the importance of yards over TD's.
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Parents rejoice! You can still play fantasy football and not embarrass yourselves.
There are many things I love in life, but two that are at the top of my list are my family and my fantasy football credentials. That last part may have been the saddest thought ever committed to writing, but it's true. Among my friends, the one true symbol of one's intelligence and sports-savvy is their success at fantasy football. I know I'm not alone in this, and I know I'm not alone in my frustration at trying to keep up this status while simultaneously raising children. There's something about checking for free agents at 3am after an epic search in the dark for your child's pacifier has left you wide awake that seems to make fantasy football a little less relevant in one's life.
This past year, after playing fantasy football in multiple leagues for 14 consecutive years, I hung up my fantasy-cleats in an attempt to ease the stress of my life. Although I didn't miss the stress of reading every box score and article I could find during lunch at work, nor regretting my line-up decisions by 3pm on Sunday, I did miss something far more important: the camaraderie of my friends. Or maybe I was just mad that my beloved Bears were squandering their playoff chances near the end of the season, and I didn't have my fantasy team to cheer for and cheer me up. Either way, even though it was incredibly difficult to manage a fake team (or 4) while also managing two real-life children, I missed having a stake in every game on the NFL schedule and having an excuse to get together with my friends.
So, after being called the 'Favre' of my league for the past three years after debating my fantasy retirement so many times, I am truly living up to the moniker by returning to the league this year (I have also promised them I will not text any inappropriate pics...sorry, Bears fan, had to throw that in there). However, I am too competitive to simply exist in the league. I want to win. And I'm sure you do too. Hell, you've kept reading for this long, you must have some investment in your league!
That's where this blog comes in. I, like you (fellow parent), do not have time to read fantasy blogs, articles, box scores, etc. I, like you, probably only have 20 minutes of free time per day, and that is usually spent scrolling through the DVR, starting a show with my wife, and then passing out on the couch ten minutes into said show. So how is it possible to find a competitive edge in the fantasy world while still maintaining a healthy dedication to your family and other commitments? THIS BLOG OBVIOUSLY!
Leading up to the 2013-2014 NFL season, I will be posting about different strategies and theories that I feel could give you a competitive edge. What are my credentials you ask? Well, I am a parent of two children, so that covers the parent part. As for fantasy football, according to my fantasy profile on Yahoo, I have had 5 first place finishes, 6 second place finishes, and 3 third place finishes over the course of 19 fantasy football leagues. That's really not that great, but hey, I guarantee you will maintain respectability in your league, I never guaranteed you would actually win it.
This past year, after playing fantasy football in multiple leagues for 14 consecutive years, I hung up my fantasy-cleats in an attempt to ease the stress of my life. Although I didn't miss the stress of reading every box score and article I could find during lunch at work, nor regretting my line-up decisions by 3pm on Sunday, I did miss something far more important: the camaraderie of my friends. Or maybe I was just mad that my beloved Bears were squandering their playoff chances near the end of the season, and I didn't have my fantasy team to cheer for and cheer me up. Either way, even though it was incredibly difficult to manage a fake team (or 4) while also managing two real-life children, I missed having a stake in every game on the NFL schedule and having an excuse to get together with my friends.
So, after being called the 'Favre' of my league for the past three years after debating my fantasy retirement so many times, I am truly living up to the moniker by returning to the league this year (I have also promised them I will not text any inappropriate pics...sorry, Bears fan, had to throw that in there). However, I am too competitive to simply exist in the league. I want to win. And I'm sure you do too. Hell, you've kept reading for this long, you must have some investment in your league!
That's where this blog comes in. I, like you (fellow parent), do not have time to read fantasy blogs, articles, box scores, etc. I, like you, probably only have 20 minutes of free time per day, and that is usually spent scrolling through the DVR, starting a show with my wife, and then passing out on the couch ten minutes into said show. So how is it possible to find a competitive edge in the fantasy world while still maintaining a healthy dedication to your family and other commitments? THIS BLOG OBVIOUSLY!
Leading up to the 2013-2014 NFL season, I will be posting about different strategies and theories that I feel could give you a competitive edge. What are my credentials you ask? Well, I am a parent of two children, so that covers the parent part. As for fantasy football, according to my fantasy profile on Yahoo, I have had 5 first place finishes, 6 second place finishes, and 3 third place finishes over the course of 19 fantasy football leagues. That's really not that great, but hey, I guarantee you will maintain respectability in your league, I never guaranteed you would actually win it.
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